Predictions for 2010

Lets have a crack at a few predictions for this year...

Politics
I'm wondering if Brown will step down before the election, he's never had to face a proper challenge, and so may opt to avoid an embarrassing defeat. If he does fight the election, then I don't expect to step down afterwards regardless of the elections result.

I also expect the election to be held some time in March, we ought to be officially out of recession then and Browns New Year speech consisted of warning everyone not to let the Tories wreck the 'recovery.' It seems an economic bounce is going to be Browns weapon against the Tories, and given the footfall in shops over the last couple of weeks there ought to be some good news. Any later than March and they risk the economy dipping again, which would surely kill off any fading chances Labour have of winning the election.

The fact Labour cannot afford two electoral campaigns - we have local elections in May - isn't going to be an issue, as I'm pretty sure Brown will sacrifice victories in the local elections is exchange for greater success in the general election. Grassroots Labour may differ on that view, but when exactly has the New Labour project given a flying fuck about grassroots?

I reckon we'll see a hung parliament - most people detest Labour, but the Tories aren't offering anything substantial, and the Lib Dems simply aren't popular enough. No party has ignited public opinion, and apathy and disgust will rule the roost. Hopefully a large number of independents will feature in the next parliament, but even there we don't have many Martin Bell's capturing people attention.

Economics
The UK will retain it's AAA status. The market has already marked us down, and the rating agencies know marking us down officially may cause panic and start another economic disaster with sovereign debt.

The IMF will make noises about the UK economy. If there's a hung parliament, loud noises.

If a Tory majority, figures will be released about a 25% cut in public expenditure, making life very hard for the Tories.

Someone, somewhere will look at how much we give to other countries, compare it to the cuts we have to make, make a quick calculation and that'll be one of Cameron's first problems when the press start asking why we're sacking teachers but giving India and China free money.

There will be a douple-dip recession.

Rumblings will indicate something nasty in 2011.

Employment
There'll be a raft of redundancies towards summer, pushing unemployment over 3 million.

Society
More of the same. Adolescent crime and low-level annoyances will creep up, X Factor, same old shit.